Tomorrow, 23 January 2006, Canadians vote in a Federal election (viewers of CNN International, and BBC World will be excused for not knowing anything about this event...it has been virtually unmentioned. This is understandable as the elections in Chile, Bolivia, Liberia, whales swimming up the Thames, anti-smoking campaigns in East Timor etc are all far more important than the election in the world's 8th largest economy).
It appears that the Conservatives are poised to win the most seats. The Renaissance Man predicts that although the Conservatives may win the popular vote, the number of seats they win will exceed those won by the Liberals by less than 30. this is because the concentration of Conservative votes in the West will skew the poplular vote.
If there is a plurality of seats won by the Conservatives, the Renaissance Man predicts that they will be unable to form a minority government as no other party in the Commons will wish to work with them More likely, the Liberals will work once again with the NDP and receive some phantom support from the Bloc Quebecois in order to hold power.
For Harper to become Prime Minister, the Conservatives will need an outright majority. In light of how the votes are spread out throughout the country, this is highly unlikely.
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